This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
A mere eight weeks ago that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.